A bit of a different one here today. Some of you may know the other market I predict most is film awards. And with the Oscars coming up in just under a week, I thought I’d make a full breakdown of why I’m predicting an upset in one of this year’s most exciting categories.
Who’s winning Best Actress?
A very close race that could truly go either way and typically in those, the stronger movie’s performance is safest. Moore’s role was tailor-made for SAG voters and Madison’s BAFTA win despite Anora losing Picture, Director and Screenplay gives her just enough strength in my eyes if Anora is to take those at the Oscars. If anyone has the narrative to just win anyway, it's Moore, but I feel like that’s betting on the outlier, not the norm.
Prediction: Mikey Madison, Anora
The case for Demi Moore
Madison’s BAFTA win could be explained by the Brits not being as receptive to Moore’s career narrative as the Oscars will be. Moore is an American actress and the voters who feel compelled to vote for her on the grounds of her career are far more likely to be in Hollywood than overseas. It’s possible to discount the BAFTA loss as just a blip for reasons that aren’t as relevant at the Oscars.
GG, CC, and SAG is a very strong combo. Moore got to give two televised speeches before voting began and then won SAG which arguably showed where things stood during Oscar voting.
Statistically, lead performances which won this combo but lost BAFTA are still 6/9 at the Oscars - 3/4 in Actor, 3/5 in Actress.
1998: Jack Nicholson (As Good as It Gets) against Robert Carlyle (The Full Monty) – Won Oscar
2004: Charlize Theron (Monster) against Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake) - Won Oscar
2005: Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby) against Scarlett Johansson (Lost in Translation) - Won Oscar
2008: Julie Christie (Away from Her) against Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose) - Lost Oscar
2010: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side) against Carey Mulligan (An Education) - Won Oscar
2010: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) against Colin Firth (A Single Man) – Won Oscar
2014: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) against Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) – Won Oscar
2019: Glenn Close (The Wife) against Olivia Colman (The Favourite) – Lost Oscar
2021: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) against Anthony Hopkins (The Father) - Lost Oscar
Even though most cases are older, it’s hard to see why Madison would be able to pull off a similar upset. A Madison win will need Anora to have a lot of passion at the Oscars - more than any precursor so far. It needs to be winning Picture convincingly (somewhat tough to believe after SAG loss).
The only thing to be wary of with this stat is that 5/6 of the BAFTA winners who went on to lose the Oscar are from the UK - Madison is not.
The Brendan Fraser win over Austin Butler is a very similar race where the career “popcorn actor” comeback narrative is against the soft-spoken, newcomer (coincidentally Butler and Madison were also both in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood). Despite Fraser being in the film not nominated for Best Picture, he still was able to win the Oscar.
Recently, each of the last three Best Makeup and Hairstyling Oscar winners also won a lead acting category. The Substance is a lock to win that this year.
If you expect Brody to win, going 2/4 with SAG is not usually a smart idea. SAG has only gone 2/4 with the Oscars three times since 1995.
Personality-wise, most would say Moore is more charismatic than Madison and she’s delivered great speeches at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice. Voters may genuinely feel this is their last chance to reward her and in a close race this may secure the last necessary votes.
Moore is also obviously far more connected in Hollywood than Madison - if this is about who has friends there to vote for them, then Moore has the advantage.
The case for Mikey Madison
Even if Madison only has the BAFTA, that is definitely the precursor you’d want. Globes and Critics Choice are important but mostly for the speeches - you need SAG or BAFTA. In the last 10 years, there have been 7 SAG/BAFTA splits (excluding the Joanna Scanlan BAFTA win without an Oscar nom):
2017 – Best Actor:
SAG: Denzel Washington (Fences)
BAFTA: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Oscar: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
2019 – Best Actress:
SAG: Glenn Close (The Wife)
BAFTA: Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Oscar: Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
2021 – Best Actor:
SAG: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
BAFTA: Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Oscar: Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
2021 – Best Actress:
SAG: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
BAFTA: Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Oscar: Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
2023 – Best Actor:
SAG: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
BAFTA: Austin Butler (Elvis)
Oscar: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
2023 – Best Actress:
SAG: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
BAFTA: Cate Blanchett (Tár)
Oscar: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
2024 – Best Actress:
SAG: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
BAFTA: Emma Stone (Poor Things)
Oscar: Emma Stone (Poor Things)
5 out of 7 of these races went to the BAFTA winner but more importantly, besides The Whale, every race went to the performance in the film they liked more. And even The Whale you could argue was more liked by the time winners were being voted on - it won 2 Oscars to Elvis’ 0. This year it isn’t debatable who’s in the bigger film.
While her BAFTA win could be discounted as discussed with Moore, you could also view Madison winning BAFTA as a very big sign of strength.
The BAFTAs probably like The Substance a similar amount as the Oscars - both nominated Fargeat, did not nominate Qualley, and it’s likely somewhere around 6th-8th in terms of Best Picture (The Substance made BAFTA top 10 but not top 5).
Anora is expected to be liked more at the Oscars than the BAFTAs. As outlined above it’s the clear favourite for Picture and Director - neither of which it won at the BAFTAs.
Despite this, Madison was still able to win the BAFTA. It makes a lot of sense that if she could win there without Anora taking any other major awards, then she should be coming along too at the Oscars.
Regarding the SAG loss though, I think it was predictable that SAG (the actors guild) went with Moore - she’s playing a fading actress trying to reclaim her youth and fame in Hollywood.
Whether Oscar-correlative or not, SAG has consistently shown it will take the narrative if given one. Yeoh and Gladstone are good examples the last two years. It would’ve been really surprising to see Madison take this - Moore winning here shouldn’t change your mind.
But Anora losing Ensemble could. As mentioned before, I see Conclave’s SAG win as more about rewarding the best ensemble of performances than any lack of passion for Anora. Perhaps I’m selling myself a bit of a story here though; predicting Madison definitely is predicated on there being broad support for her film.
While yes Moore’s combo is 6/9 when we’ve seen this race play out before (CC, GG, and SAG vs. BAFTA), 8/9 of the BAFTA-winners were British.
5/6 people who lost against Moore’s combo were British - it’s much more powerful to win BAFTA as an American.
Since 1995, in races without a sweeper, if a lead actress in the eventual Best Picture winner had won a precursor, they have always gone on to win the Oscar.
In Best Actor though, there are three examples where a Best Picture lead with a precursor went on to lose the Oscar:
2002: Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind lost to Denzel Washington, Training Day
2014: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave lost to Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
2015: Michael Keaton, Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) lost to Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
With Crowe’s loss as more for other reasons not relevant to Madison (look up Russell Crowe 2002 BAFTAs), Ejiofor is really the only example of a Best Picture lead with the BAFTA who lost the Oscar. And even then as mentioned before, he’s British where Madison isn’t.
In either category, there is only one example of a Best Picture lead who won BAFTA but lost SAG (Frances McDormand, Nomadland - Won Oscar).
Many forget the Academy is much more kind to younger women as opposed to younger men. They are more willing to give Best Actress to performers under 30 than Best Actor.
Since 1995, seven Best Actress winners were under 30 as opposed to only Adrien Brody for Best Actor - less than a month before his 30th birthday.
In races without a sweeper since 1995, the youngest performer who won at least one precursor award goes on to win the Oscar in:
8 out of 18 years in Best Actor (44%)
11 out of 16 years in Best Actress (69%)
This is the key difference when comparing this race to Fraser vs Butler.
Very subjective but voters who care about interviews and other press events could find Madison’s quiet and soft-spoken demeanor compared to her character as very impressive in how she crafted this performance.
While The Substance secured its nominations, the Academy has exhibited a strong genre bias historically against horror films. Taking a step back from this year’s race, Moore’s win would be pretty far removed from most of the Best Actress winners.
Lastly, while sort of being a repeat of the Best Picture performances point - if Anora is winning Best Picture, then why wouldn’t Anora herself win too?
The case for Fernanda Torres?
I’ll be more brief here because the case for Torres is more based on vibes.
The case for Torres is that she won the Globe, so she got to give a speech, and we’ve actually never seen her compete in the same category as Moore or Madison at a precursor yet! A total wild card.
In Torres’ case, I think you can overlook the fact that she’d be the first actress to win the Oscar without even being nominated at SAG and BAFTA because of the unique campaign I’m Still Here has had. They’ve been pushing it hard - there’s definitely passion for it out there and if enough voters were discovering it during voting, then in theory it could have a shot.
For me, it’s just too gutsy to guess this. It’s like those who thought Sandra Huller could win last year by the other two splitting votes - I guess it’s possible but it feels remote enough as a possibility that I can’t predict it.
Closing thoughts
It’s a very tough race to call, but with her film’s strength, the BAFTA win, and the specific circumstances of that BAFTA win - I’m going with Madison.
Looking at the betting odds, I think oddsmakers are overestimating Moore - PolyMarket has her at 62% to Madison's 31% as of writing. Some money to be made if you're into that kind of thing…
Be sure to tune into the Oscars on Sunday night US time or Monday morning AUS time!
